How OKC Thunder Can Repeat as 2025-26 NBA Champions

This offseason, the Oklahoma City Thunder sits in one of the most enviable positions a defending NBA champion has ever experienced.

The most significant factor is what it has already accomplished. The 2024-25 Thunder won 84 games across the regular season and playoffs. Twelve of the 14 previous teams which racked up at least 80 total wins made the NBA Finals the next season, with eight securing the championship.

Oklahoma City was also the youngest and least experienced champion in recent memory, winning just six playoff games in its three previous seasons. Eight of its 15 players on standard contracts have played three or fewer professional campaigns. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, the Thunder’s second- and third-best players, have played fewer combined regular-season minutes (10,026) than 23-year-old Jalen Green (10,038).

Beyond sizable room for development, the Thunder is returning over 99% of its 2025 playoff minutes and displayed excellent lineup flexibility throughout last season. Six retained players — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Holmgren, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe and Isaiah Hartenstein — registered at least a 90th percentile (+2.2) estimated plus-minus during the regular season. Four more reached the 75th percentile (+0.6).

Oklahoma City is set to have players in MVP, All-NBA, All-Star and All-Defensive contention this season. The most important potential award, of course, is the Larry O’Brien Trophy. It requires 16 playoff wins — although championship squads must set themselves up far beforehand.

Last season, the Thunder won the most regular-season games (68) of any team since the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors, and the most of any eventual champion since the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls (69). Among the last 10 champions, only the 2016-17 Warriors and 2023-24 Boston Celtics also finished with the most regular-season wins and highest regular-season net rating.

Eight teams from each conference make the playoffs every year, technically giving more than half the league an opportunity to win the title, but great teams stand out from the pack months in advance.

Nine of the last 10 champions earned a top-four regular-season record. Nine of the last 10 champions recorded a top-five regular-season net rating. Six of the last 10 champions were No. 1 seeds in their conference, two were No. 2 seeds and two were No. 3 seeds.

Great playoff teams must first be great regular-season teams.

Last season, the Thunder won nine more games and tallied a +5.3 higher net rating than the last decade’s average champion. Like Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP candidacy, Williams’ All-NBA candidacy and Luguentz Dort’s All-Defensive candicacy, the team already knows how to win consistently.

Even if Oklahoma City goes through regular-season regression, which seems probable after such dominance from start to finish, many back-to-back champions have stepped back slightly to reach the same goal.

Thirteen teams throughout NBA history have won two straight titles, with five securing three-peats. The Bill Russell, Sam Jones and K.C. Jones Celtics rattled off eight consecutive championships from 1959 to 1966.

Here are how those 13 teams’ follow-up regular seasons compared to their first, adjusting for 82-game schedules:

This sample of champions averaged 59.4 wins and a +6.5 net rating during the regular season, decreasing by 2.0 wins and a -1.2 net rating from their prior years.

On average, the nine follow-up champions since the NBA instituted a salary cap in 1984-85 have dropped by 3.8 wins and a -1.9 net rating.

Eight of 13 repeaters, including five of the last six, won fewer games in their second season. Six of 12 repeaters with data, including five of the last six, endured a worse net rating.

The four most successful regular seasons, by winning percentage, were the 1996-97 Bulls (69 wins), 1991-92 Bulls (67 wins), 2012-13 Miami Heat (66 wins) and 1959-60 Celtics (on pace for 65 wins). Those teams employed Michael Jordan, LeBron James and Bill Russell, respectively — ideal superstars for sustained success.

Just two of these back-to-back champions failed to win 56 games: the 1968-69 Celtics (48 wins) and 1994-95 Houston Rockets (47 wins). Still, with Russell and Hakeem Olajuwon at the helm, they played their best basketball when the stakes were highest. Boston’s 1969 championship was its 11th in 13 years.

Oklahoma City finished atop the Western Conference by 16 games last season. It would have been the No. 1 seed with twice as many losses. It clinched more double-digit wins (54) than any other conference team’s wins (52).

The Thunder’s first necessary step to repeating is another commanding regular season.

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