I love Week 3! One of my favorite angles of the season is backing some of the 0-2 teams that I still think can make the playoffs and even in some cases, win their divisions!
Sunday Night Football has two of those teams: The Chiefs and Giants! I have four bets in that game, and also got involved with the AFC South battle between the Jaguars and Texans, plus the Bears and Cowboys matchup. I’m fresh off a 8-1 +7.07 unit performance in Week 2, so let’s make some money!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Chiefs (-6) at Giants: O/U 45.5
The 0-2 Chiefs go to MetLife Stadium to take on a 0-2 Giants team who has lost 11 of the last 12 games on primetime at home. That is good news for Kansas City.
Per Action Network, no 0-2 team in NFL history as closed as -7 point favorites, so the Chiefs have the chance. The four largest 0-2 favorites of 6 and -6.5 all covered going 4-0.
Over the past three seasons, Kansas City is 29-0 when leading after the first quarter. I think they do at MetLife on Sunday night, so I backed Kansas City 1Q -0.5 (+110) and took the Giants 1Q Team Total Under 2.5 (+130).
Looking at the early game script, New York ran three first quarter plays in Week 1 versus the Commanders to their 14. In Week 2, the Giants had 24 offensive plays and six points (two field goals) to the Cowboys’ three first quarter plays.
I don’t think New York will have the ball 10-plus plays in the first quarter with a veteran Patrick Mahomes on the other side. The Chiefs have given the Chargers (KC 12-10 plays) and Eagles (PHI 17-11 plays) two and three drives in the first quarter, but I don’t expect more than two from New York.
The first drive to end in a punt is priced at -124 and the no score on the first possession is -228. I will fade the Giants early and full game.
I played Chiefs 1Q -0.5 (+110) and full game spreads of -6 (-110), plus the Giants 1Q Team Total Under 2.5 (+130) and first half Under 9.5 (-102). I’m going hard with the 0-2 Chiefs.
Pick: Giants 1Q Team Total Under 2.5 (1 unit), Giants 1H Team Total Under 9.5 (1 unit), Chiefs -6 (1 unit), Chiefs 1Q -0.5 (1 unit)
Chiefs, Eagles both look sluggish offensively
Sunday’s Super Bowl rematch gave the FFHH crew pause because the Chiefs and Eagles are both struggling to make multiple players stand out in fantasy football.
Cowboys (-1.5) at Bears: O/U 50.5
Dak Prescott and Caleb Williams meet for one of the entertaining matchups of the 4 PM ET window.
Williams is 0-8 in his career when he plays in the 4 PM ET window or later and Prescott has beat up on under .500 teams in his career (39-12), so it’s easy to pick the Cowboys here, but I like the 0-2 Bears.
If Russell Wilson can throw for 450 yards and take you to OT, there is cause for concern post Micah Parsons life for Dallas. While Chicago’s defense wasn’t much better with 52 points allowed to Detroit, the Bears were in that game until a punt and turnover on downs in the second half gave the Lions the go ahead for the blowout.
Desperation starts to creep in at 0-2 and Chicago was expected to take a leap into being a fringe Wild Card team. I still believe Chicago has the coaching and offensive weapons to put together a successful season.
Dallas plays fast (4th overall) and if Chicago matches their pace (18th), I think the Bears will be just fine because believe or not, Chicago ranks third in the NFL for third-down defense allowing a 31.8% conversion rate despite being 0-2. Dallas is tied for the worst third down defense in the league at 51.8% with Miami.
I played the Bears at +1.5 at -118 odds and would play it down to the ML as they are starting to become a pick-em at some shops and I think Chicago wins.
Pick: Bears +1.5 (1 unit)
Williams, Wilson have favorable matchups Week 3
Matthew Berry, Jay Croucher and Lawrence Jackson look at their best quarterback plays for NFL Week 3, Caleb Williams and Russell Wilson facing potentially vulnerable defenses.
Texans at Jaguars (-1.5): O/U 44.5
The AFC South race is getting interesting with the Colts (2-0) in the lead with the Jaguars (1-1) nipping at the heels, and both play the 0-2 Texans and Titans!
Houston’s two losses are by five and one point to the Rams and Bucs who are both 2-0. Despite being down multiple receivers and tight ends, the Texans have find a way to be in winning positions each of the first two games.
Both of these defenses rank bottom five through two games for third down defense and bottom 10 when it comes to most penalized. The biggest different to how the start of the season has gone is Jacksonville has six takeaways through two games, which I don’t think is sustainable.
Houston has one giveaway and CJ Stroud is the more trustworthy quarterback at 3-1 against Jacksonville in his young career. Over the last 14 meetings, Houston has won 12 versus Jacksonville. I grabbed the Texans at +1.5 for -112 odds and would go down to the ML as they could close as the favorite.
Pick: Texans +1.5 (1 unit)
Season Record: 13-6 (68.4%) +5.24 units | 20.92 ROI%
Week 2 Record: 8-1 (88.8%) +7.07 units | 56.04 ROI%
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