The NFL is back, and there’s no better way to celebrate than by building a same-game parlay. The problem? Most SGPs are longshots designed to drain your bankroll. Those flashy +1,000,000 tickets look fun, but they almost never cash. The books want you to bet on those! At FTN, we take a different approach to SGPs. Using our Same Game Parlay Tool, powered by 10,000 simulations for every matchup, we identify spots where the odds are actually mispriced. That means you’re not just throwing darts, but you’re building parlays with real edges, even when the payouts are big.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings Same-Game Parlay
Sunday night, we have a three-leg parlay in this game between two NFC teams. We’re projecting a tight game, with two teams trying to slow the pace and win on the ground. Let’s take a look at each leg of the parlay, and why our simulations like their changes of hitting. This one offers up +380 odds on BetMGM.
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Leg 1: Darnell Mooney Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
Darnell Mooney missed Week 1 with an injury, and it showed. Without a true second WR option, Michael Penix Jr. had to force throws to Drake London all game, despite the defense’s full attention being on stopping him. London had 15 targets but was deemed open on just two of them. The Falcons will welcome Mooney back with open arms, as the offense might get to open up a bit. Mooney goes under the radar, but he’s coming off a 992-yard season, including 119 in two games with Penix. The Falcons do not have enough depth to slowly bring Mooney up to speed, so like for him to get going right away.
Leg 2: Jordan Mason Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
I came out of Week 1 impressed by the Vikings run game, especially Mason. He played 56% of the snaps and out-carried Aaron Jones 15-8. He had an impressive 35 win yards, which basically means yards he earned by forcing a missed tackle or avoiding a defender altogether. He now gets a great matchup vs a soft Falcons run defense. While the Falcons shut down Bucky Irving last week, I’m not buying the improvement. Last season they gave up 4.49 adjusted line yards per carry, and didn’t make any meaningful improvements to their run defense this year. If the Vikings control the game, which a -3.5 line implies they will, Mason should get lots of burn on the ground, giving him a great chance to go over.
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Leg 3: Aaron Jones Sr. Over 38.5 Rushing Yards
Conventional wisdom would think that if Mason has a good game, Aaron Jones Sr. probably didn’t, but that is not how our simulations see it. The correlation boost in this parlay went way up when we combine the two, meaning when one of the RBs goes over their rushing prop, there’s a great chance the other one does as well. And it makes sense, if the Vikings are winning on the ground, they are likely doing so using both RBs. Jones still had a 46% snap share last week, and this feels like a true committee.
The gamescript to win this parlay is clear: The Vikings control the game, running the ball well, while the Falcons are passing to catch up. As noted above, this parlay pays out at +380 on BetMGM. Let’s see how it plays out Sunday.
